Trend & Behaviour

Methodology

Not investment advice. A rule-based screen of daily prices, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

A name is listed only when every check that is on passes. A check that is off is not part of the pass. The settings below are the ones the screen calculates. They are not a claim that the settings are the best ones.

Prices

Daily bars come from Yahoo Finance, regular session only, about one year back. The Last figure is Yahoo’s regular-session price when Yahoo sends one, otherwise the last daily close. The 50-day, RSI, and MACD are calculated on the daily closes. During the session, Last can move while those indicators still rest on completed days.

“Bars through” is the date of the last daily bar. A scan can also be a few minutes behind, because a quote is kept for eight minutes. This is not an exchange feed.

The figure is left in Yahoo’s units. US names are in dollars. London names (.L) are in pence. Milan names (.MI) are in euros.

Above the 50-day

The average is a simple 50-day average of the daily closes. It is not an exponential average. The check passes when Last is above that average.

RSI

RSI is Wilder’s 14-day RSI of the daily closes. The default band is 45 to 70. The band can be changed. A reading outside the band fails the check.

MACD

MACD is the 12-day exponential average of the closes minus the 26-day exponential average. The signal line is a 9-day exponential average of that MACD line. A cross is the day the MACD line moves from at or below the signal to above it. The check asks for that cross within the last 1, 2, 3, 5, or 8 sessions. The default is 3. “Rising” is a different check: the MACD line is above the signal and higher than the day before.

Trend Strength

All of these have to be true:

  • The 50-day average is higher than it was 20 sessions ago.
  • Each of the last 20 closes finished above its own 50-day average.
  • Last is at least 3% above the 50-day, and under 20% above it.

Pullback Setup

This is a dip back toward a 50-day that is still rising. All of these have to be true:

  • The 50-day average is higher than it was 20 sessions ago.
  • The 20 sessions before the latest 15 were all above the 50-day.
  • Last has given back at least 3 percentage points from the furthest point above the average in that earlier window.
  • Last is still above the 50-day, and less than 3% above it.
  • The deepest close in the last 15 sessions was no more than 3% under the 50-day.
  • The low of that pause was at least 3 sessions ago, and Last is back above it.

Breakout Readiness

All four have to be true. It is not a score.

  • Last is under the highest high of the last 180 sessions, and within 3% of it.
  • The last 15 sessions did not fall more than 12% under that high.
  • The high-to-low range of those 15 sessions is no wider than the 15 sessions before them.
  • Last is above the 50-day, and the 50-day is higher than it was 20 sessions ago.

A grade sits beside that result. It does not change which names pass. Confirmed means all four are true, the last 15 sessions averaged less volume than the 15 before, and the shape is a cup. Forming means all four are true and those two notes are not both present. Not ready means at least one of the four is false. Not enough daily bars means there are fewer than 180 sessions, or no usable high.

The cup note uses the lowest low between the two rims, measured from the lower rim. An earlier specification used the lowest close and the higher rim. That difference is not part of the pass. The 12% pause is unchanged.

Beta

Beta is one year of daily percentage changes against SPY, up to 252 sessions, and at least 60 overlapping sessions. It is covariance with SPY divided by the variance of SPY. 1.0 moves with SPY. The same SPY comparison is used for London and Milan names. The default band is 0 to 3.

Earnings

Dates come from the Nasdaq earnings calendar, for the next two weeks of weekdays, counted from the London date. The default check drops a US symbol that reports within 5 days. The calendar is keyed by US ticker. A London or Milan name is not dropped by this check. If the calendar does not answer, nothing is dropped for earnings.

The ceiling

A swing high is a high above the three bars on either side, inside the last 180 sessions. Highs within 1.5% of each other, touched at least twice, count as one level. A single high is kept when it is the highest in the 15 bars on either side. A falling line is drawn through two swing highs at least 15 sessions apart when later closes mostly stay under it.

A ceiling is kept only when it is just above Last and no more than 12% above it. If both a level and a falling line qualify, the nearer one is used. “Clear” means that ceiling is at least 3% overhead, or there is no ceiling inside the 12% band.